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The Post-Match Analysis

Posted by DINRIL on May 25, 2008

What we got right this year:

ARMENIA

We said: Expect to see this one breeze through, and be up there with the big guns in the final.

What happened: Armenia not only breezed through but finished in fourth place and came perilously close to challenging the leaders – while scoring their best result yet. Qele Qele!

AZERBAIJAN

We said: This song appears to be bafflingly popular, which means these boys and their noise could well land Azerbaijan in the final on their very first attempt.

What happened: Just that. And OK, the stage show was flashy and fun but we still think the editor’s two-year-old daughter singing Wheels On The Bus is rather more tuneful. Still, well done boys, since it’s never easy for a debutant nation to succeed (and spare a thought for the other debutants San Marino who finished last in their semi-final)

IRELAND

We said: Possibly we’re being a little cynical and bitter here but we reckon Dustin may be just cold leftovers by Wednesday morning…..

What happened: Dustin’s comical song was shunned by the rest of Europe and scored just 22 points in the semi- not enough for a place in the final. We saw this coming a mile off. Try sending a proper song next year perhaps – as Norway proved last night if you have a good ‘un it doesn’t matter where you come from in Europe!

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

We said: Still not 100 per cent convinced it is a contest winner (although we have our sneaking suspicions), but we would be scandalously surprised if this one didn’t make it through to the final.

What happened: It wasn’t a contest winner but did get through and finished a very respectable tenth. Very pleased for Laka and his quirky crew.

PORTUGAL

We said: a total out of nowhere dark horse this one, but Vania’s ballad has a strong following and should provide a  memorable, dramatic end to the semi. Expect some success to finally come the way of the Portuguese.

What happened: Well we were half-right. Vania breezed through to the final but only finished 13th. Best Portuguese result in years, mind you. Well done that lady!

ALBANIA

We said: Albania’s best effort in a while – deserves to be in the final and hopefully it will be.

What happened: It was. Not that many people noticed.

 

WHAT WE GOT WRONG:

BULGARIA

We said: We are sticking to our guns with this one and saying it will make the final. Otherwise the DJ may have to come and take her away….

What happened: In one of our biggest disappointments of the year, the Bulgarians missed out on the final. Not fair!

FYR MACEDONIA

We said: we didn’t rate this one at all but we reckon it’ll be popular. Besides, it’s Macdeonia. And they always get through, don’t they?

What happened: The Macedonians were left floundering in the semi for the first time since it started (probably due to losing all those neighbourly votes). Actually, we’re quite pleased we got this one wrong since they weren’t too good on semi-finals night.

SWITZERLAND

We said: The word of mouth on Paolo’s performances in Belgrade isn’t too good, but it’s still popular enough to make it through, we think.

What happened: Sort of wrong, again, since we were already voicing our doubts by the time Thursday’s semi came along. Looks like it wasn’t wonderful for the Swiss after all.

SWEDEN

We said: “Possibly one of the most glaringly obvious finalists of the entire year, we wouldn’t be surprised if Charlotte scored herself a second victory as well.”

What happened: Oh come on, didn’t everybody get this one wrong? Poor old Signor Charlotte (and if anybody wonders why we are calling her that go get yourself a DVD of Sweeney Todd and watch it!)

ANDORRA

What we said: This could be Andorra’s year.

What happened: Oh go away. Just go away, shut up and leave us alone…..

 

 

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4 Responses to “The Post-Match Analysis”

  1. Yug said

    Can we FINALLY put to rest the ridiculous notion that the second semi-final had stronger songs than the first?

    Semi-final one: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 20, 22, 24
    Semi-final two: 2, 7, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 21

    The first semi-final contained four of the top five finishers and seven of the top ten (I always saw it as MUCH stronger).

  2. Yug said

    Some random thoughts:

    Don’t dismiss the odds. The top three favorites finished (in order) one, two, and three.

    Most of the sudden movement in the odds didn’t mean anything, but I did wonder about the integrity of keeping the semi-final results confidential. Some people do know them, of course, and that knowledge would allow anyone knowing them a significant wagering advantage.

    I correctly predicted seven out of the top ten. I saw seven “sure” top ten finishers: Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine. Unfortunately, none of my three “unsure” choices made it. Number seven Sweden finished eighteenth (lower than I imagined), number nine Spain finished sixteenth (I should have paid more attention to the rehearsal reports), and number ten Portugal finished thirteenth (I knew they wouldn’t come close to winning, but the press had me convinced they would make the top ten. I missed Norway (I had them fourteenth – I really liked this song, but didn’t think it would get votes from the east), Israel (I had them eleventh, just two places below where they finished), and Azerbaijan (I had them seventeenth – I still don’t get the appeal of this song).

    No one came close to Verka Serduchka’s record of getting points from all forty televoting countries last year (plus one of the two jury countries).

    Dima Bilan’s winning score of 6.48 points per country ranks as the second lowest winning score in history (well, at least since the 12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 system began in 1975). Only Greece in 2005 managed to win with a lower score (6.05).

    Final comments:

    The U.K. did not deserve to finish tied for last this year.

    Armenia (eight) picked up more twelve points than Russia (seven).

    I never bought the hype for Portugal (and I feel embarrassed even putting them tenth now). She can sing great, but (ask Andy Abraham) some songs just can’t be pushed to the top by anyone.

    Ukraine looked MUCH better in the final. If she had given that performance in the semi-final, I would have moved her up a couple of notches (to second). I thought Ukraine would win after they had performed.

    How on earth did France score the same number of points as Sweden? I never watched a French rehearsal, but if I had, I would have put it last (even behind Germany). It sounded terrible.

    Greece (my pick to win) was never going to win, but she sounded off at the start of the song, which probably cost them second place.

    Spain did not look good on a big stage (I wish I had watched that rehearsal, too). They might have done better with just the same two women they had in the video.

    I still don’t “Believe” in Russia’s song. This is the worst of the three (counting the 2005 National Final) Eurovision songs Dima has had. Russia will no doubt put on a first rate show (and spend whatever it takes to do so), but I would rather go just about anywhere else than Moscow (I have been there a half-dozen times before, and Moscow has a lot of negatives for visitors).

    Second semi-final comments:

    Get rid of the jury pick. Macedonia deserved to qualify more than Sweden did (it scored more points). Macedonia finished tenth (and Bulgaria eleventh) in the televote, with Sweden twelfth.

    How did Croatia finish fourth and Turkey seventh in the semi-final? They finished right where I expected them to in the final (I predicted Turkey sixth and Croatia twenty-third – they finished seventh and twenty-first respectively).

    Bulgaria did manage to pick up votes from fifteen of the other twenty-one countries (and finish eleventh with fifty-six points). Macedonia got sixty-four points from just nine countries.

    The biggest oops – many people (including myself) had Hungary as a qualifier. They finished dead last with six points.

    First semi-final comments:

    Neither Estonia (which finished eighteenth) nor Ireland (which finished fifteenth) came close to qualifying.

    The one I missed – I picked Slovenia to qualify (which finished eleventh), instead of Finland (which finished eighth).

    First semi-final – Finland eighth, Bosnia and Herzegovina ninth. Final – Bosnia and Herzegovina tenth, Finland twenty-second.

    The Netherlands truly has no friends, finishing forty-five points behind ninth place. I think if it had made the final, it still would have beat most of the songs from the second semi-final there.

    Russia finished only third in the semi-final (behind Greece, which won, and Armenia). That reminded me of 2004, the other time one country (Ukraine) lost to another (Serbia and Montenegro) in a semi-final, then went on to win the whole thing.

  3. dimos said

    people from FYROM are not Macedonians. they wish to but they are Slavs. so you should better call them Slavomacedonians if this makes it easier for you

  4. Ricardo said

    This resutls were so unfair !

    I tottaly didn’t agree ! For example, PORTUGAL in the 13rd position?!?! Oh my god, that song was great, and strong and beautiful! Portgual deserved to be on the Top3 (in my opinion portual deserved the victory) , but i think eurovision is only a competition based on interests and Portugal, a small country with no neighbors, will never win a contest like this.

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